Let’s start with the Analogy.

We’ve heard speculation about a Verizon iPhone for 2-3 years at this point. In the cell phone/tech/gadget world, that’s a lifetime. The Chicago Cubs have been trying to win the World Series for the first time since 1908, and yes, that too is a lifetime. My analogy? The Verizon iPhone is the Chicago Cubs of the cell phone world. And, for all those waiting contently for this marriage between Apple & Verizon, I think prudent advice would be to adopt the same favorite saying of Cub fans…”wait til next year”. Seriously, I could develop the analogy and comparisons even further than just the anticipation factor, but on to bigger and better discussion.

Now for some Analysis.

Just to get up to speed, the latest round of speculation is related to this recent Wall Street Journal article. PC World also has a nice article indicating reasons to “think twice” about the Verizon and Apple partnership.

After reading these two articles, here are my key issues:

1. Apple does what Apple wants. Period.

Apple has an immense amount of leverage in this situation, and this game will be played on their terms and and their terms only. Sure they could sell some more phones by allowing Verizon in on the game, but they’ll have to create a special phone, deal with network issues, etc; all over again. Might not be worth the headache in this current environment.

2. Technology

I have to imagine that Apple, a company on the leading edge of technology, is not interested in porting their phone backwards to fit any CDMA network; Verizon’s included. Again, this also speaks to their incredible leverage in this situation. I could see a scenario where Verizon ramps up their 4G implementation to make this deal happen faster, but until then, I think there is little incentive for Apple to go backwards.

And, do we even know if Verizon’s network is capable of handling the ridiculous increase in data traffic from iPhone users? Sure, Verizon has a larger coverage area than AT&T, but that doesn’t mean you can handle the bandwidth pouring across your network. AT&T struggled with this particular issue and I’m sure there would be some potential growing pains with other carriers as well.

3. Money, Money, Money

AT&T’s stake:
No matter what other issues are at stake, it will ultimately come down to the mighty dollar. I honestly believe it would be suicide for AT&T to lose the exclusive deal they have with the iPhone right now. The company’s recent network troubles and dissatisfaction, combined with loss of the iPhone exclusivity; would spell ultimate disaster. Could you imagine the mass exodus of people switching to Verizon if/when this deal comes true? Right now, I think it would be huge. Basically, Apple has AT&T between a rock and hard place; AT&T will pay whatever the bounty to keep the iPhone…for now.

However, some recent reports have shown AT&T may be figuring out how to tune their network to better handle the iPhone data traffic. If AT&T resolves their issues, then losing the exclusive deal wouldn’t be nearly as painful, because there should be less dissatisfied users once the service problems are squashed. Until then, you have to figure that whatever awesome amount of money they are paying Apple for this deal; is definitely worth the paper.

Apple’s stake:
Apple is in the catbird seat when it comes to money on this deal. No matter what, they’re banking big time. Right now, they can and probably will hold AT&T ransom for whatever sum of money they desire. The only reason Apple has to leave AT&T, is if they can’t provide reliable service to their users. Sure, they could sell more handsets to Verizon users, but why not just jack the price through the roof on an exclusive deal with AT&T? Sounds like a simpler, easier plan to me. Of course, if Verizon offered to pay whatever costs were associated with developing a CDMA iPhone, production, etc…maybe Apple thinks a little harder about the issue. Otherwise, I can’t see Apple investing time and resources in older technology, when they can just wait a year or two and release an even better product on a better network.

Everybody Else:
I totally agree with the PC World article that much of this speculation could be an attempt to stifle the booming Android market, etc. A rumor of this nature is powerful enough to make people hold off of switching carriers, upgrading phones, etc, etc. Imagine all the money at stake and changing hands in those scenarios? When you figure up all the carriers, manufacturers, and stockholders who can gain/lose from such speculation; it’s not a far fetched idea.

Now for the real fun…Predictions.

My predictions? The current Verizon iPhone rumor is just that, a rumor. I think Verizon gets an iPhone, but it won’t be until their network reaches an acceptable point according to Apple. I’m thinking sometime in 2011 or later. I believe that makes the most business sense for Apple and allows them to maintain total control, which they love. They can continue to have AT&T doing their bidding for now and make a ton of cash at the same time. Meanwhile, they tell Verizon to get their network in shape. Then, when Verizon gets their network close, Apple will negotiate a deal with them. All of this allows Apple to focus on the iPad & iPhone launches this year, and avoids Apple having the headache of dealing with even more versions of the iPhone, tuning another carrier’s network, so on and so forth til a more likeable future date.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but it wouldn’t be any fun if we didn’t talk about all the cool stuff happening in the tech world. Personally, none of this affects me too much. I’m on AT&T right now, but debating switching carriers later this year. My next phone will be an open-source Android phone and I have no desire for an iPhone.

However, I do love tech and gadgets so the iPhone discussions are always intriguing; chime in with your thoughts!