Go Crazy Folks! Go Crazy!

Any ardent fan of the St. Louis Cardinals has this phrase etched in their memory for eternity. Jack Buck’s famous call in the 85′ NLCS is one of the all-time greats in baseball history.

However, I think we can now use this phrase to describe the current situation with Albert Pujols’ contract negotiations.

Catching Up…

In case you’ve been locked away from the rest of the world, Albert Pujols is entering the final year of his current contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. During his tenure with the Redbirds, he has always put forth a self-imposed deadline for contract talks. Typically, he doesn’t talk about his contract during spring training or the remainder of the playing year. This year has been no different, and today, that deadline has come to pass with no long-term deal in place.

Why Go Crazy?

Depends on who you ask. There are some Cardinal fans who are in panic mode cause Pujols hasn’t signed with the team and they don’t think he will at all. Then, you have fans pissed because Albert wants to be the highest paid player in the league. Yet, others are upset because if you read between the lines, it’s not perfectly clear that the Cardinals have put forth the best possible effort in these negotiations.

But, the biggest reason to go crazy (in my opinion), is that our nemesis the Chicago Cubs will likely be in the market for a first basemen next year. And, we all know their history with losing very talented players, so they would love nothing more than to sign Pujols (the best player in the game) away from the Cardinals. The move would weaken the Cardinals, and would make them noticeably better by filling a major need with a great player.

Who’s to Blame?

Personally, I can’t really point the finger at anybody right now. We simply don’t have enough facts to begin pointing. There are waaay too many unanswered questions floating about.

Let’s start with the Cardinal’s organization:

What was the Cardinal’s ONE offer this offseason?
Why only one offer? And why wait two months to put it on the table?
If age and length of contract were primary issues, why not lock Albert up long-term two or three years ago?
Why bet the farm on a hometown discount, when Pujols has been underpaid for nearly his entire run as a Cardinal?
Why let Albert hit free agency, where he’ll undoubtedly drive up the asking price no matter what?

Now, questions for Albert:

Was the requested contract really 10 years at $30 million per year?
If so, how can it not be about the money? (as he has so famously expressed)
How can you ask the Cardinals to show their willingness to “compete”, yet cripple their payroll/ability to sign other players?
Was the intent always to head to free agency? If so, why continue to say things like “I want to be a Cardinal for the rest of my career”?

The Breakdown…

As I mentioned earlier, I’m not sure I can blame either side for how we got to this point because of the lack of certain key information. That said, do I think this could have been avoided? Sure. The Cardinals, or Albert, could have easily renegotiated his deal in 08, or 09 to end his career as a Cardinal. Had either side taken this approach, they would have avoided the age/length of contract debate, and done so without a deadline looming overhead; thus preventing the spectacle we’re currently witnessing.

I really can’t blame Albert for wanting to get his payday and avoiding the “hometown discount” we so often hear about. Initially, I was pissed when I heard the 10/300 crap, mostly cause he said it wasn’t about money. But, he has been a DEAL for the Cardinals his entire career. Because of that fact, I don’t think you can compare Albert’s situation to that of Chris Carpenter (who did provide a hometown discount). Carpenter was hurt on/off throughout his first few years in St. Louis and the Cardinals also helped resurrect his career after injury battles earlier as a Toronto Blue Jay. Carpenter owed the Cardinals, the reverse could be said in Albert’s situation.

I heard an interesting stat today that said he’s never been the highest paid player for the Cardinals. Crazy, especially considering his performance. Still, if you really want to stay in a city like St. Louis, where you’ll contend nearly every season (most World Series titles outside of the Yankees); don’t you have to be more flexible? I think the other reason fans are upset is because Albert has stated that it’s not just about money, but it clearly seems to be just about the money. Another point against Albert is his constant stance that the Cardinals need to put a team around him and compete. Yet, if he’s really demanding the largest contract in the history of baseball, he’s crippling the team’s ability to sign other players and compete. Pujols also holds a no-trade clause and has stated he doesn’t wish to be traded. So, while there are some interesting trade scenarios out there, it seems very unlikely.

I also can’t blame the Cardinals for not ponying up the cash for a $300 million deal. That’s ludicrous. The fact that people still use A-Rod’s deal as the standard is simply preposterous. Everyone with a brain knows that deal was the biggest mistake ever, especially in light of his PED admission. The Rangers were strapped with payroll for years because of the A-Rod deal, and eventually, A-Rod wanted out to go to a winner. When you look back at how that contract affected the Rangers, they were irrelevant for a decade, in large part because of the A-Rod deal. Again, I can see why the Cardinals are hesitant to go down this path.

Pujols can’t have it both ways (large contract, still compete) in St. Louis; maybe in Chicago, New York, or Philadelphia, but not in St. Louis. The Cardinals payroll for 2010 is listed around $94 million, but I believe the actual payroll stated by management today will be in the low $100 million area. Factor in the Holliday contract and a $30 million/year Pujols deal and close to half the Cardinals payroll would be alloted to two players. You can analyze team salary numbers and that ratio would easily be the highest among any team in baseball. For example, the top two Yankees make a combined $55 million. Insane, but that’s still only a 1/4 of their payroll, similar ratio for many other teams. Actually, a few of the worst teams in baseball have very high salary ratios for their top 2 players (Pittsburgh & Seattle). So, the argument could be made that a deal in the $30 million per year range for Pujols would be very damaging to the Cardinals as an organization.

Digging a little deeper into the Cardinal’s roster and things get even more complex. You see a guy like Adam Wainwright who is clearly underpaid at less than $5 million per season. He’s going to be due a very large payday very soon. Colby Rasmus and Jaime Garcia, both rising stars, are making less than half a million per season. The good news is that Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman are slightly overpaid, short contracts; which should help offset the upcoming deals for Rasmus, Garcia, and Wainwright.

Now What?

Personally, I’m tired of this story already and it’s only just begun. Deep down I want to believe the Cardinals and Pujols can find a way to make something work out in the $23-25 million dollar range. A deal of this nature would put him in the top 5 salaries for a player, and still give the Cardinals a little wiggle room for the upcoming contracts previously mentioned. I’d really hate to see him leave because he has been a great player, but at the same time, if you believe any of the varying reports they could be as far as $9 million per season apart. I don’t think a gap that large can be closed.

Honestly, if he leaves, I don’t think we’ll be affected by it as much as some “experts” are claiming. Again, as stated earlier, I think the biggest issue would be if he went to a division rival like the Cubs. A move of this nature would have a much more direct impact on the Cardinals then if he went to a team outside of the NL Central. If he does leave, the Cardinals can take the $20-25 million the organization is willing to spend and put on two players. One to help replace Pujols’ production, and a second to address another area of need. Taking all emotion out of the equation, and I think this is the best move for the team; unless you get really creative with the dollars on a Pujols deal.

We won before Albert was “El Hombre”, and we’ll win again regardless of the outcome of this negotiation. We won with “Whiteyball” in the 80’s and we won in the 60’s with Gibson’s teams, Gas House Gang of the 30’s, etc, etc.

We’ll find a way to win, we always do, so don’t go crazy…at least not yet.