I’ll admit, basketball is my least favorite sport to watch, but I usually keep a close eye on the Illinois men’s basketball team. Our program has had some pretty fun teams to watch in the past couple of decades. We had Lou Henson’s “Flyin’ Illini” teams of the late 80s with the likes of Kendall Gill, Derek Anderson, and Kenny Battle. We had some solid teams with Lon Kruger in the late 90s, featuring the talents of Kiwane Garris, Cory Bradford, and Sergio McClain. Bill Self followed Lon Kruger, starting as head coach in 2000, and he quickly escalated the Illinois basketball program to another level.
Self was only the Illinois coach for 3 seasons, but never lost more than 9 games in any of those three years. Self also recruited much of the talent that would propel Illinois to their 2005 Final Four run. The main core of the last Illinois team coached by Bill Self consisted of four future NBA draft picks: Deron Williams, Dee Brown, James Augustine, and Luther Head. After Self’s third season, he left for Kansas, and Bruce Weber took over the reins.
Weber inherited the four players mentioned above to start the 2003 season, and went on to have 3 very successful seasons to start his Illinois run. Brown, Williams, Augustine, and Head would make up the core of the first two seasons and would finish with records of 26-7 and 37-2 respectively. The 04-05 season even included playing against North Carolina for the national championship. The core was split in half for the 05-06 season, leaving only Dee Brown and James Augustine on the squad. The 05-06 season was Weber’s third season as Illini coach, and with Brown and Augustine still intact, they posted a 26-7 record.
How have the Illini fared since the 05-06 season? 23-12, 16-19, and 24-10 respectively. The 2010-2011 squad is currently 14-7, and they have 4 ranked opponents remaining on the schedule, with three of those four on the road in the Big Ten. I figure them to finish the regular season 21-10, and that’s if they handle their business against the unranked teams (which they didnt’ do against Indiana tonight) and beat #12 Purdue at home.
Weber’s record and win percentage his first 3 seasons? A record of 89-16 which comes up to an .847 win percentage. Absolutely ridiculous! But, when you look at the roster he inherited, which included four NBA draft picks; maybe that’s to be expected. Remember who recruited those players? Yep, Bill Self, just making sure you’re still paying attention.
Weber’s stats since that stud lineup left Champaign? As of right now, not including my projected finish for this season, 63-41 which equates to a .605 win percentage. Pretty pedestrian numbers, and even if we include my projection for this year, it only bumps up to .622. Now, to be fair, Weber’s overall win percentage at Illinois (not including this year) is .727. I know these aren’t terrible numbers, but when you consider that Bill Self had a .765 win percentage, and he only had one year with players he recruited; I consider it a decline in Illinois basketball.
Now, I’m not just going to rip Bruce Weber based on overall record comparisons and the fact that he hasn’t done much since Self’s guys left. I think you can also tell a lot by looking at how programs have fared since a coach has left/arrived. For example, we’ve already covered how Illinois has fared since Self left, but how has Southern Illinois fared since Weber left? How did Tulsa manage after Self left to come to Illinois? How has Kansas fared since Self arrived?
Here is the breakdown (not including this season):
PLEASE NOTE: “before” and “after” numbers include 3 seasons immediately before/after coach arrived/left. “With” numbers include all seasons they coached at the school.
SIU before Weber: 38-51, .426
SIU with Weber: 103-54, .656
SIU after Weber: 74-24, .755
Tulsa before Self: 69-24, 741
Tulsa with Self: 74-27, .732
Tulsa after Self: 76-28, .730
Kansas before Self: 87-19, .820
Kansas with Self: 220-44, .833 (1 national title)
Illinois before Self: 59-38, .608
Illinois with Self: 78-24, .765
Illinois with Weber: 152-57, .727
I find these numbers to be extremely interesting.
Here’s my analysis of the numbers:
- Self’s stats are ridiculous everywhere he coaches. His record and improvement of the Illinois program was nuts, and would have been more insane had he stayed another 2-3 seasons to coach the Final Four team. He’s even improved the win percentage at Kansas, following in Roy William’s shoes. Pretty impressive. That said, he’s never really inherited a terrible program either.
- Tulsa was a very consistent program for a decade, regardless of the coach.
- Weber did a great job improving the SIU program. However, the program actually flourished even more after he left. I’m sure he deserves some of that credit. However, he inherited a boat load of talent when he arrived at Illinois, and the program has been mediocre in his past 3 seasons (since the major talent departed).
Non-number related thoughts…
Initially, I really doubted Weber’s ability to recruit in a major conference, but he seems to have recruited better the past few seasons. The problem? The improved recruiting really hasn’t helped much on the court just yet. I also question whether or not players really enjoy playing for Bruce Weber, and that’s something I never really doubted with Self. I think Weber is a good X’s and O’s kind of guy, which makes him a solid coach. But, when it comes to relating to the players and getting them to give 100% day in and day out; I’m not so sure he compares to the upper echelon of coaches in the country.
The answer to the question?
Personally, I do feel like Illinois basketball is in decline, albeit a slow one. We’re facing tougher and tougher competition in the Big Ten. We now have a plethora of great coaches in the conference: Matt Painter, Tubby Smith, Tom Crean, Bo Ryan, Thad Matta, and Tom Izzo. If I were ranking coaches in the Big Ten, I would put Weber in the middle of the pack, possibly as low as #7. The talent we’re recruiting isn’t translating on the court, and on-the-court leadership has been non-existent since Deron Williams and Dee Brown left Champaign.
The solution?
Depends on what the Illinois athletic director is trying to accomplish. Maybe the goal is for Illinois to be a solid, stable, mid-level program who has an affordable coach (affordable is good thing in the State of Illinois right now) that won’t up and leave like Self and Kruger. Weber is a pretty good bargain compared to guys like Self or Izzo, who both command over double Weber’s salary. However, if the real goal is to compete for national titles and make the Final Four regularly, then I think Weber should be replaced with a top tier coach who can get the job done.
What do you think?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!