Should the Butler Bulldogs really be considered a “Cinderella” on Monday night against the Duke Blue Devils? “Of course they are!” I can imagine you’re screaming this at your computer right now. I’m going to steal a line from Lee Corso…”Not so fast my friend!”
Listen, I don’t want to take anything at all away from the Butler team that will be playing for the National Championship on Monday night. However, the fact remains, Duke and Butler are a much closer match-up than many will have you believe.
Let’s examine the evidence, shall we?
First, well start with data for both teams this year.
According to the ESPN/USA Today preseason rankings, Butler was a 10 and Duke was an 8. The AP poll had Butler at 11 and Duke at 9. After the 2009-2010 regular season, Butler’s record was 33-4, Duke’s 34-5. Pretty even comparison so far, don’t you think?
I know what you’re thinking, “Duke plays in a tougher conference, etc, etc”.
Obviously, Duke plays a much more difficult schedule in the ACC. Butler only played 4 ranked teams all year, with a record of 1-3. Duke was 5-3 against ranked opponents during the regular season. In my opinion, Butler had a tougher road to the Final Four, but that is probably to be expected as a 5 seed; whereas Duke was a number one. So, Duke has a tougher regular season, but a slightly easier road in the tourney. I’d say that’s a push in my book.
Next, let’s look at history.
Duke has a rich basketball history with multiple national titles and NBA draft picks. Butler, no national titles and I’m sure they have way fewer NBA draft picks. I guess for those people itching to play the Cinderella card, that would be your ammunition. But, really, that’s about all the further you’d go with history.
When we look at recent history, say the last 5 seasons (including this year), Duke has advanced further than Butler in the tourney twice; Butler has advanced further than Duke once and they matched each other the other two times…for now. That is to say, if Butler wins Monday, they’ll have identical postseason showings when compared to Duke over the past 5 seasons AND a national title (something Duke wouldn’t be able to claim). If you tack on the 4 seasons previous, going back to 2001-2002, Duke gains 3 better tourney showings. However, only one of those showings by Duke was a deep run.
After an analysis of history, here is what we have: Duke has the long-term history (most tourney appearances, titles, etc) on its side, no doubt about that one. But, when we look at recent history (last 5-10 seasons), Duke and Butler are very comparable teams; especially in the 5 year history. When we include those early 90s teams, Duke has 20 tourney wins to Butler’s 11. However, over the past 5 seasons (including this one), Duke has 10 tourney wins; Butler has 8.
Finally, what does it take to be a Cinderella?
Well, maybe the fact that Butler is a tiny school in the Midwest makes them a Cinderella? Of course, Duke is a large power house east coast school! Wrong. Duke may have a larger, more noteworthy campus/faculty/alumni to their credit, but even when we compare the relative size of the student bodies; the numbers aren’t as drastic as one might think. Duke has over 13,000 total students, BUT over half of them are grad students. Butler has only 4,512 total students. The interesting fact is that when we compare just the undergraduate students, Duke has about 1,500 more students than Butler!
While Butler may have some legitimate claims at being a Cinderella, I think they are grossly exaggerated. Butler is no George Mason. In fact, West Virginia would have had almost as much right to call themselves a Cinderella. I think the stories of George Mason in 05-06, Villanova in 85, Penn in 79, Gather’s Loyola team in 90, and even the 1999 Gonzaga squad; are far better representations of a true Cinderella run. A Cinderella should be classified as a team that has NO business being where they are at. Butler, a preseason top 10 team, doesn’t equal that definition.
Let’s wrap it up…
Let me reiterate again, I love what the Bulldogs from Butler have done this season and in the tournament. And sure, we love to root for underdogs, I’ve already written about that particular subject. But, let’s not get carried away by classifying every team who isn’t from a power conference, or a team that just isn’t that popular, as a Cinderella or underdog. Let’s save that recognition for teams that truly fit the slipper.